How law school admissions actually work
Every ABA-accredited law school reports detailed admit data each year through the ABA 509 Required Disclosures. The data on this page reflects the 2025 first-year entering class (full-time enrollees, the same cohort schools report to US News). Those reports include the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile LSAT scores and undergraduate GPAs of each school's entering class, plus overall acceptance rates and class size. Admissions committees rely on the same data when making their offers — and US News rankings weight LSAT and GPA medians heavily, which is why these two numbers carry so much weight in the process.
Most predictors give you a single black-box probability. This one is different in three ways:
- It cites the math. Click “Show methodology” in the calculator above to see exactly how each school's bucket is assigned. Every prediction traces back to the 2025 ABA 509 data — no proprietary user-submitted numbers, no opaque scoring.
- It detects splitters. If your LSAT is at the 75th percentile but your GPA is at the 25th (or vice versa), the calculator surfaces this and identifies splitter-friendly schools where your odds are materially better than the basic percentile math suggests.
- It links to full school profiles. Every school in your output deep-links to its full Case Cub profile — admit data, employment markets, transfer rates, distinguishing features. Use the calculator for triage; use the profiles to actually decide where to apply.
Understanding the buckets
- Safety. Both numbers comfortably above the school's 75th percentile, with high estimated admit probability. Realistic merit scholarship potential. Note: T14 schools and any school with under 15% acceptance rate are never classified as Safety.
- Likely. At or above median on both metrics. High admission probability. Often where the strongest scholarship offers come from.
- Target. Numbers in range — between 25th and 75th percentile on both. Realistic admission with a strong application, and the bulk of where you should be applying.
- Reach. Below median on at least one metric. Possible with strong softs, exceptional personal statement, or splitter-friendly profile.
- Hard Reach. Numbers significantly below the school's profile. Long odds. Apply only if you have a specific reason — strong family/donor connection, exceptional background, or you're comfortable with low expected value.
Splitters and reverse splitters explained
A splitter is an applicant whose LSAT is at or above a school's 75th percentile but whose GPA is below the 25th — typically a 170+ LSAT with a 3.3 GPA or thereabouts. A reverse splitter (also called a GPA splitter) has the opposite profile: high GPA, lower LSAT.
The reason splitter status matters: schools' admit decisions aren't made by a linear formula. Different schools weight LSAT vs. GPA differently, and a few schools have publicly stated or historically demonstrated splitter preferences:
- LSAT splitter friendly: Northwestern, Cornell, USC Gould, Washington University in St. Louis, Notre Dame, George Washington, Boston University. These schools admit LSAT splitters at above-baseline rates.
- GPA splitter friendly: UC Berkeley, UCLA, UC Davis, UC Law SF, University of Pennsylvania, Georgetown. These schools tend to weight GPA more heavily.
If you're a splitter, the calculator above flags the schools where your profile actually fits — and adjusts the estimated admit probability accordingly.
What the calculator can't see
LSAT and GPA are the two largest single factors in law school admissions decisions, but they aren't the only factors. The calculator can't evaluate:
- Personal statement quality. A great personal statement won't get a 155/3.2 into Yale, but it can move a target school to a likely or pull a reach into target range.
- Letters of recommendation. Strong letters from recognizable academics or practitioners help — especially for non-traditional applicants.
- Work experience and softs. Military service, Peace Corps, advanced degrees, and significant professional background matter — especially at schools that explicitly value non-traditional applicants (Northwestern, Berkeley, NYU).
- URM status. Underrepresented minority status has historically increased admit rates at most schools, though the post-2023 affirmative-action landscape continues to evolve.
- Application timing. Rolling admissions matter. November applicants typically have meaningfully better odds than February applicants at the same school.
- Yield protection. Some schools reject or waitlist applicants whose numbers are far above the school's medians on the assumption that they'll attend somewhere better. The calculator can't predict this.
Building your application list
A strong application list typically includes:
- 2-3 Safety/Likely schools — at least one to make sure you have an offer; ideally two for scholarship leverage.
- 4-6 Target schools — where most of your offers will come from.
- 3-5 Reach schools — including any T14 you'd realistically attend if admitted.
- 0-2 Hard Reaches — only if you have specific reasons to apply.
Most successful applicants apply to 8-15 schools total. Apply earlier rather than later in the cycle (October-November is ideal). Use scholarships from your Safety/Likely schools as leverage at your Target/Reach schools.
Pair this with our other admissions tools
Once you have your application list, dive deeper:
- Law School Profiles — full research on every ABA-accredited school: signature clinics, notable journals, faculty highlights, employment markets, distinguishing features.
- Transfer Predictor — if you don't get into your target school, model your transfer chances after 1L using actual ABA 2025 transfer admit data.
- Free Case Brief Library — 150+ structured case briefs for the most-assigned 1L cases. Bookmark for after you matriculate.
Bigger picture: Case Cub is built for law students from 0L through 3L — admissions research, interactive case briefs across 20,000+ cases, issue spotters, flashcards, outline generators. Try it free.